Table Of Contents Show

3 Month Long Range Weather Forecast And Outlook For Queensland November – January 2023 – 2024

🗒️ Answer

November to January rainfall is expected to be below average in western, southern, and northern Australia, while maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above average across the country.

Unusually high temperatures are at least 2.5 times more likely to occur during this period, influenced by factors like El Niño, positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, and global warming.

Key Takeaways

  • Rainfall: During this period, Australia is expected to experience below-average rainfall in many regions, primarily in western, southern, and northern Australia.
  • Temperature: Maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average for almost all of Australia. This is due to a combination of factors, including the ongoing El Niño conditions and climate change, which has caused Australia’s climate to warm by around 1.48°C since 1910. Unusually high temperatures are at least 2.5 times more likely to occur than normal.
  • Climate Drivers: El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events impact the long-range forecast. Record warm oceans globally are also influencing the forecast.
  • Drought Conditions: Severe drought conditions exist, with soil moisture below average across much of Australia, particularly in the south and east. Low streamflows are observed in parts of several states, and storage levels remain low in some areas.

October 2023 was exceptionally dry, with rainfall 65% below the long-term average, making it the fifth driest October since 1900.

In addition to these weather patterns, it’s worth noting that the onset of northern rainfall, which significantly affects plant growth, varies depending on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phase. The Bureau provides outlooks on the likelihood of early or late onset with probabilities.

This outlook serves as a valuable resource for understanding and preparing for the climate conditions expected in Australia for the coming months.

It is essential to stay informed and take necessary precautions, especially in regions prone to drought and water shortages. For detailed and up-to-date information, you can refer to the Bureau of Meteorology’s Climate Outlook page.

Climate Drivers & Long-Term Forecast For Queensland

  • These dry conditions are attributed to ongoing factors such as El Niño conditions and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Long-term rainfall deficiencies persist across all states and territories.
  • The extended forecast reflects the known effects of various significant climate forces:
  • El Niño persists in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern Pacific remain above the El Niño thresholds. Models indicate a probable additional warming of the central to eastern Pacific, with SSTs staying above El Niño thresholds until early autumn in the southern hemisphere of 2024.
  • Historically, during spring, El Niño typically results in reduced rainfall in eastern Australia and above-average temperatures in the southern two-thirds of the country.
  • In summer, an increased likelihood of drier conditions is usually observed only in certain parts of northeast Australia, while warmer days prevail across much of the eastern half of the country.
  • The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains ongoing. All models suggest that it will likely persist until early December. A positive IOD generally results in reduced spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia.
  • The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is presently positive and is expected to return to a neutral value this week.
  • Australia’s climate has undergone a warming of approximately 1.48 °C since 1910, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events.

El Nino Climate Driver Status Australia Summer 2024

El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole ARE CURRENTLY underway

Climate driver outlook australia el nino bom

Weather and Rainfall Maps For Queensland 2023-2024

Rainfall – Totals that have a 75% chance of occurring for November – January 2023 – 2024

Qld rainfall weather forecast for summer 2023 2024

The chance of at least 150mm for November – January 2023 – 2024

Qld rainfall weather forecast for summer 2023 2024

Chance Of Exceeding The Average Rainfall In QLD For November – January 2023 – 2024

Qld rainfall weather forecast for summer 2023 2024

Probability of being unusually wet in QLD November – January 2023 – 2024

Qld rainfall weather forecast for summer 2023 2024

Max Temperature Outlook QLD

The chance of above median max temperature for November – January 2023 – 2024

Max temperature outlook qld the chance of above median max temperature for november - january 2023 - 2024

Images courtesy of BOM Weather

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advise that people should:

* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Never drive, walk or ride through floodwaters. If it’s flooded, forget it.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Avoid using the telephone during a thunderstorm.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* For emergency assistance, contact the SES on 132 500.

Our facebook page

For further information and live updates about Queensland weather forecasts, visit Tim’s Severe Weather Queensland.

Visit tims severe weather queensland

Weather Maps and Tools

Further Reading

What Does The El Nino Mean?

An El Nino can herald below-median rainfall, heatwaves, above-average temperatures, drought, more intense and widespread bushfires and more intense cyclones and thunderstorms when they do occur.

Impact of El Niño and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole on Australia’s Weather

Australia’s weather patterns are influenced by various climatic phenomena, and two significant ones currently in play are El Niño and the Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). These events have far-reaching consequences on the country’s climate, with implications for rainfall, temperature, and overall weather conditions.

We will explore the declaration and confirmation of these events and their concurrent impact on Australia’s climate. We will delve into the specifics of El Niño and the Positive IOD, their individual effects, and the compounded impact when they occur simultaneously.

El Niño: A Weather Disruptor

El Niño is a well-known climatic phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has recently confirmed the presence of an established El Niño, which has significant implications for the nation’s weather patterns.

El Niño’s Influence

Warming SSTs: Central and eastern Pacific SSTs have exceeded El Niño thresholds, indicating the strength of this event. Furthermore, climate models project further warming in these regions.

Atmospheric Coupling: The coupling of the ocean and atmosphere has commenced a hallmark of El Niño. This coupling strengthens and sustains the event for an extended period. Current models suggest that this El Niño is likely to persist until at least the end of February.

Impact on Australia: El Niño typically leads to reduced spring and early summer rainfall for eastern Australia and warmer days for the southern two-thirds of the country. These effects can have significant consequences for agriculture, water resources, and the environment.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): A Dual Challenge

Simultaneously, a Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is underway. The IOD is characterized by temperature differences in the Indian Ocean, particularly in the western and eastern regions.

Positive IOD’s Influence

Strength and Persistence: The IOD index is currently at +1.25°C, well above the positive threshold, and has been sustained for five weeks. Models predict its continuation throughout spring, indicating a strong and persistent Positive IOD event.

Effect on Rainfall: A Positive IOD typically leads to reduced spring rainfall for central and southeast Australia. This can exacerbate drought conditions and pose challenges for agriculture and water management.

Combined Impact: El Niño and Positive IOD

When El Niño and a Positive IOD coincide, their drying effects on Australia’s climate are magnified and more widespread. This double-whammy scenario can lead to even more severe consequences for the nation, including prolonged droughts, decreased agricultural yields, and heightened bushfire risks.

Unlocking the Mysteries of the Indian Ocean Dipole: Impact on Climate and Beyond

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a meteorological marvel that wields immense influence over the climate of Australia and neighbouring countries along the vast expanse of the Indian Ocean Basin.

This dynamic phenomenon is marked by the contrast in sea surface temperatures between two distinct regions, creating a unique atmospheric seesaw that can significantly impact weather patterns and rainfall variability.

In this comprehensive exploration, we delve into the intricacies of the IOD, uncovering its characteristics, connections, and consequences.

Defining the Indian Ocean Dipole

At its core, the Indian Ocean Dipole is defined by the temperature difference between two specific areas, colloquially known as “poles.” The western pole resides in the warm embrace of the Arabian Sea, situated in the western Indian Ocean.

In contrast, the eastern pole finds its home in the eastern Indian Ocean, just south of Indonesia. This stark temperature dichotomy, resembling a dipole, serves as the hallmark of this atmospheric phenomenon.

The IOD’s Influence on Climate

While the IOD may seem confined to the waters of the Indian Ocean, its reach extends far beyond, leaving a lasting imprint on the climate of the surrounding regions. Much like its Pacific counterpart, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the IOD exerts its influence by altering temperature gradients across the Indian Ocean.

These temperature gradients, in turn, dictate the preferred regions for rising and descending moisture-laden air masses.

In scientific parlance, the IOD is classified as a coupled ocean and atmosphere phenomenon, akin to ENSO. However, it carves its domain in the equatorial Indian Ocean, making it unique in its own right.

An intriguing connection between the IOD and ENSO emerges through the extension of the Walker Circulation westward, accompanied by the Indonesian throughflow—a conduit transporting warm tropical ocean waters from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean.

Consequently, positive IOD events often align themselves with El Niño occurrences, while negative IOD events coincide with the emergence of La Niña.

The interplay of these atmospheric forces creates a complex dance, where the impacts of El Niño and La Niña events can reach their zenith or wane, depending on whether the IOD and ENSO are in harmony or discord.

Decoding Positive and Negative IOD Events

Positive and negative IOD events present themselves as two sides of the same climatic coin, each with its distinct characteristics and repercussions:

Positive IOD Event:

  • Warmer sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean relative to the east.
  • Easterly wind anomalies sweep across the Indian Ocean.
  • Reduced cloudiness looms over Australia’s northwest.
  • Diminished rainfall graces southern Australia and the Top End.

Negative IOD Event:

  • Cooler sea surface temperatures manifest in the western Indian Ocean relative to the east.
  • Prevailing winds veer towards the west, ushering in increased cloudiness over Australia’s northwest.
  • The Top End and southern Australia experience a surge in rainfall.

The IOD’s Real-world Impact

Understanding the Indian Ocean Dipole’s intricacies is not merely an academic exercise—it holds profound significance for both meteorologists and the regions it touches.

The IOD serves as a vital piece in the puzzle of climate prediction, providing crucial insights into future weather patterns and their potential consequences.

For the people of Australia and neighbouring nations, the IOD acts as a double-edged sword, capable of delivering either bountiful rains or parched landscapes.

Its interplay with ENSO adds an extra layer of complexity to weather forecasts, demanding constant vigilance from experts seeking to anticipate its effects.

Conclusion: Navigating the Unpredictable Waters of the IOD

The Indian Ocean Dipole stands as a testament to the intricate interplay of nature’s forces. Its ability to sway the climate of entire regions underscores the importance of unravelling its mysteries.

As we continue to study and understand the IOD’s behaviour, we inch closer to better-equipped forecasts and, ultimately, a more resilient response to its capricious whims.

In the grand theatre of Earth’s climate, the Indian Ocean Dipole takes its place as a pivotal actor, commanding our attention and respect.

Its influence, though enigmatic, reminds us of the ever-present dynamism of our planet’s interconnected systems and the profound impact they wield on our lives.


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here
Captcha verification failed!
CAPTCHA user score failed. Please contact us!