The perfect storm

Severe weather warning forecast for Brisbane, Moreton Bay, Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, Southport, Burleigh Heads, Byron Bay.

Intense subtropical storm

A strong hybrid low & strong associated trough is developing in the southern coral sea, it is expected to intensify as it moves toward the southern Queensland coastline.

Cyclonic conditions are expected to develop along the southern Queensland exposed coastline from very late Sunday(13/12/2020) evening and through Monday. Intense rainfall that may lead to flash flooding, storm force winds over 80km p/h, and exceptionally large tides and waves. Some coastal inundation and beach erosion may occur.

Intense to flooding rainfall, destructive and cyclonic winds over 80km per hour near the coastline and in excess of 110km per hour in the Moreton Bay areas, storm surges, and 5-7 metre waves are expected.

This is a significant weather system, please take precautions. This weather forecast will be updated as to the progress of the weather system in the coming days.

Localised and major flooding is possible. Please start preparing, as this is a significant weather system.

Update: Severe flooding on the Northern NSW Coast on Saturday night.

Severe Storm Brisbane+QLD/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x6b91579aac93d233:0x402a35af3deaf40?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjtgIHil6juAhU5zjgGHcNTB84Q8gEwpQF6BAhNEAE” title=”Brisbane”>Brisbane

Weather Forecast for the rest of Sunday and Monday

Weather Forecast for the rest of Sunday and Monday

Don’t be fooled by the relatively light rain. Later this evening and into tomorrow(Monday) conditions will progressively get worse. Heavy rainfall is likely to develop from the Sunshine Coast to the Gold Coast along the coast and adjacent inland areas along with the eastern ranges.
Squally southeasterly winds will develop along with this intense rainfall. Localised to moderate flooding is possible and rainfall could total more than 300mm + in some places.

Some of the heavier rainfall areas may have embedded thunderstorms with strong winds and torrential rain. Waterspouts are possible on the coast and could come ashore with destructive winds.

Monday is likely to be similar, but the rain will ease off late Monday evening or very early Tuesday morning. Below is a computer modelling from of possible areas of rainfall.

It is likely that small embedded lows and eddies will develop along the coastal trough bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall over sections of the coastal strip. Most areas will see at least 100mm+.

Posted by Tim’s Severe Weather Queensland on Sunday, December 13, 2020

Also reports of severe flooding in far northern NSW:
From BOM: INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding is occurring about the New South Wales border ranges around Springbrook and is expected to continue over the next 1-2 hours

Posted by Tim’s Severe Weather Queensland on Saturday, December 12, 2020

  • An Intense subtropical storm is expected to affect south Queensland & Northern NSW. Torrential rainfall in excess of 200mm – 500mm+ over 2-3 days is likely from today onwards.
  • We can also expect storm force winds in excess of 50-80+ km per hour. Some gusts will be damaging.
  • Waves are expected to reach around 6-7 metres on exposed waters and may cause some beach erosion.


The latest models indicate an area from about the Sunshine Coast through to Brisbane & the Gold Coast down to Coffs Harbour, Kempsey & Taree may be affected.

We should start to see showers increasing before the severe weather develops, heavy showers and possible onshore thunderstorms will start to develop in the moist southeast onshore flow, increasing to rain areas, and cyclonic conditions from Sunday evening onwards.

Please ensure all marine vessels are secured, and coastal communities especially along the coast make the necessary precautions such as removing objects for yards and businesses.

Official Severe Weather Warning for the Bureau of Meteorology(BOM)


Weather Situation: A surface trough is deepening off the southeast Queensland coast. A low-pressure system is likely to form along this trough and approach the southeast Queensland coast during this morning.

Periods of heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding are expected to develop in the warning area south of about Noosa. Rainfall will increase through this morning, with some intense falls expected again about the Gold Coast Hinterland and Border Ranges, and possible about the Sunshine Coast and Hinterland. Six-hourly rainfall totals of 100mm to 150mm are likely and locally heavier falls of around 200 to 300mm will be possible.

Abnormally high tides exceeding the highest tide of the year are expected on the morning high tides for the next few days. Dangerous surf conditions are also expected to continue about exposed beaches today and in combination with the abnormally high tides could lead to significant coastal erosion about areas exposed to wave action.

Damaging winds with gusts of around 90km/h are expected about exposed coastal and elevated locations in the warning area.

A Minor Flood Warning is current for the Logan and Albert Rivers. A Flood Watch is current for catchments from Fraser Island to the Queensland/New South Wales border.

Locations which may be affected include Gold Coast, Brisbane, Moreton Island, North Stradbroke Island, Sunshine Coast and adjacent hinterland areas, Fraser Island, Caboolture, Cleveland, Redcliffe, Jimboomba, Beaudesert and Springbrook.

Observed rainfall totals from 9 am Sunday to 5 am Monday:

  • Upper Springbrook: 173mm
  • Maleny: 154mm
  • Observed 24-hour rainfall totals to 9 am Sunday:
  • Upper Springbrook: 475mm (323mm was observed within the 6 hours to 2:50 am Sunday)
  • Tomewin: 370mm (309mm was observed within the 6 hours to 2:35 am Sunday)
  • Currumbin Creek: 378mm (289mm was observed within the 6 hours to 2:40 am Sunday)

See the latest severe weather warnings for Southeast Queensland here.

Official Flood Watch Warning from the BOM

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland

This Flood Watch provides early advice of possible flooding within the specified catchments.

Flood Watch for southeast Queensland from Fraser Island to the Queensland – New South Wales border.

Issued at 1:29 pm EST on Sunday 13 December 2020

Flood Watch Number: 3

River level rises and minor flooding is likely across parts of the Flood Watch area from late Sunday and into Monday.

Widespread rainfall totals of between 100-300 mm have been recorded across the Logan and Albert and South Coast Rivers catchment areas in the 24 hours to 9 am Sunday. Localised heavier rainfall totals have been recorded, most notably 475 mm at Upper Springbrook.

The Logan, Albert and South Coast River catchment areas are now saturated with renewed river level rises expected with forecast rainfall.

A trough is expected to deepen off the southeast Queensland coast during Sunday producing showers, thunderstorms and rain areas over the Flood Watch area. The heaviest falls are expected to begin later today and are forecast to continue into Monday, particularly along the coast.

A Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall from Sunday remains current for the Flood Watch area.

River level rises above the minor flood level are likely from Sunday, with some areas expected to record renewed river level rises. Localised flooding and disruption to transport routes is also possible throughout the Flood Watch area.

A Flood Warning has been issued for the Albert and Logan Rivers.

Catchments most likely to be affected include:

  • Mary River
  • Noosa River
  • Sunshine Coast Rivers and Creeks
  • Pine and Caboolture Rivers
  • Upper Brisbane River
  • Lower Brisbane River
  • (Specifically the Bremer River, Warrill Creek and Brisbane Creeks)
Gold Coast Rivers and Creeks
Brisbane sunshine coast severe thunderstorm warning rain accumulations
Rain accumulation totals expected

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it’s flooded, forget it.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Avoid using the telephone during a thunderstorm.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

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